Reproductive decision-making
Why people in low-fertility countries start families later than they would like, studied in the UK and now in Finland.
The question
Fertility is low across high-income countries. In the UK there is a gap of about 0.3 children between the number people say they want and the number they have, and much of that gap comes from starting a family later. This project asks what holds people back when they decide whether to have a baby, or another baby, now.
Approach
I use two methods together. Focus groups with men and women of reproductive age from different educational backgrounds gave an exploratory picture of the barriers people describe. A discrete choice experiment then asked people to choose between realistic scenarios that varied things such as partner support, finances and housing, which shows how people weigh these against each other.
What we found in the UK
Partner support mattered more than finances or housing. What it meant varied with education: university-educated women put most weight on hands-on fathers and shared household responsibilities, while women without a degree put more weight on a stable relationship. The focus groups pointed the same way. Social support was influential, career opportunity costs came up among university-educated women, and the financial burden of parenthood came up among men without a degree.
No single policy will suit everyone, but support networks, whether partners, family or friends, matter for everyone.
Five years later
A British Academy Mid-Career Fellowship (2026), "The barriers to reproduction in the UK: Five years later", takes the UK work forward.
Finland
In September 2026 I was a Visiting Fellow at the INVEST Flagship Research Centre at the University of Turku, supported by an INVEST Visiting Fellowship. I am working with a colleague there on a Finnish part of the study, so that Finland and the UK can be compared. Finland has family-friendly policies and low fertility, which makes it a useful contrast.
Publications
- Sheppard, P. (2024). Using discrete choice modelling to understand the drivers of reproductive delay in the UK. International Journal of Population Studies.
- Brough, M. and Sheppard, P. (2022). Fertility decision-making in the UK: insights from a qualitative study among British men and women. Social Sciences 11(9): 409.
Listen and read
- Why are birth rates falling in the UK? Oxford Sparks Big Questions Podcast.
- Why are people in the UK leaving it so late to have children? University of Oxford expert comment.